High Probability Trading Strategies: Entry to Exit Tactics for the Forex, Futures, and Stock Markets (Wiley Trading)
In High Probability Trading Strategies, author and well-known trading educator Robert Miner skillfully outlines every aspect of a practical trading plan–from entry to exit–that he has developed over the course of his distinguished twenty-plus-year career. The result is a complete approach to trading that will allow you to trade confidently in a variety of markets and time frames. Written with the serious trader in mind, this reliable resource details a proven approach to analyzing market beh
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No nonsense advice,
Before we get started, if you are looking for a mechanical trading system, give this book a pass.
The author presents four very useful tools for trading stocks, commodities, or currencies. These are: two time-frame momentum indicators, Elliott waves, Fibonacci with price, and Fibonacci with time. You can use these four tools as a discretionary trading system, but the Fibonacci discussion is especially valuable in and of itself. The author has been around 20 years providing trading advice – an indication of some quality.
I appreciate that the author isn’t trying to hard sell his software and newsletter. You can apply the ideas in the book without buying anything more from the author! That is an honest touch that is appreciated. Still the author sells a software package that make things slightly easier, I would imagine. UPDATE: Many people comment negatively that the book is just a sales pitch for the software. Since the book discloses all the four tools, I think such a statement is untrue. However, some of the tool will require you to print out the charts and do manual calculations if you don’t have his software.
The style of the text can be somewhat annoying at times; it is repetitive and has too many comments about not-so-good advisors out there somewhere. (No need for the author to point this out unless he wants to name the offenders.) It would have been good if the author told the reader how this book compares to his earlier book Dynamic Trading: Dynamic Concepts in Time, Price & Pattern Analysis With Practical Strategies for Traders & Investors. My take is that the current book introduces the two time-frame momentum and streamlines the other information on Elliott and Fibonacci, but it would have been useful to get this information from the author. Is the previous book superceded in his mind or does it still have value?
All positive reviewers (13 of them at the time of writing) have only reviewed this book and nothing else. Clearly the author has a fan club. Irrespective, I can really this book. I am not part of the fan club and I try to give out as many one star and five star reviews.
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|Well written, very entertaining, BUT—-,
do not think that this book will make you a more successful trader by simply following a set of hard-and-fast rules. It will give you some interesting ideas to kick around in your head and try out on your own trades. If you want to save yourself the trouble of reading the book, here are its key points, in a nutshell: 1.) Graph momentum below your stock charts and know what the Oversold/Overbought lines mean and where they are. 2.) Learn about Fibonacci Retracements and learn how to set them on your main stock chart, superimposed over your graph lines. 3.) Know how to set stops that will only drain your account up to 3% if the market heads the wrong way after your entrance point. If you master those points and tangential topics that go with them pertaining to money management and trading mindset, you will have the book pretty much down pat and be able to do your own prognosticating. Remember, though, anyone, and I mean ANYONE, can do after-the-fact “prognosticating” with historical charts in hand, and then fiddle around until a “system” is found that can fit that data. Once Miner starts getting into the charts and logic of his system, anyone who has a taken probability and statistics in school will see that a little fun is afoot. It simply is “mathematical justification voodoo” at its best. To give Miner his due, he freely admits that you will never win all of the time. He even says you will most likely lose a great deal, and gives the stats on what percentage of traders go bust after just their first six months (variously 70-95%!). I was struck, though, about half-way through the book, that all of Miner’s complicated systems analysis charts, and such, exist to help sell his software and trading services, although he comes off, in so many words, like that is not the case. I don’t believe it, for one minute. He mentions “proprietary” data analysis in his software that his company uses, and you can bet the farm that he is baiting you to pop big bucks for that. Another thing, the charts in this book are terrible, as it is tough to clearly make out, in many cases, what Miner is trying to illustrate, and they are discussed on pages other than the ones on which they appear. Talk about frustrating! In the end, this book is similar to many others. It is written by a clever guy who has taken to heart the old, familiar words of PT Barnum, which you should know, as I’m not telling you, here. You can read it, get frustrated, figure, “Oh what the heck. I’ll just buy his software and let it make me millions!” BUZZZZZZ! Wrong thought. What the software will do, according to those who have bought it and discussed it online, is to relieve you of your hard-earned money, and little else. It does not, according to the same folks, give you definite entrance and exit points, at all. In closing, ponder this, as with all other folks who write these types of books, if Miner was the trading Guru he seems to come off as in this book, his protests to the contrary, why would he need to do anything other than sit at home, in his mansion, and make trades all day? With him being the absolute master of his own system, he should make billions, literally. He doesn’t, though, from trading, and neither will you. UPDATE: I have been experimenting with Miner’s system and, by pure serendipity, made this discovery: If you are looking at 1-minute charts on one screen, and 5-minute charts on another, for the same, exact stock, guess what—-Momentum may be exactly opposite on the two charts! In other words, the 1-minute chart may show you that a stock is overbought and, thus, ripe for a short position, while on the 5-minute chart the stock is shown as oversold and, thus, ready for a long position. I understand that this can be spun to make sense if one counters by saying: “Well, it all depends on if you’re making one or five minute turnarounds, and considering one-day or five-day charts.” Thing is, it just has a bad “feel” to it. To me, it simply is another indication that Miner’s system mumbo-jumbo is just that: Complex-sounding permutations applied to very basic trading tools, put together in such a way that you become convinced that you absolutely need his support materials to succeed in trading. Please consider everything I’ve said in the above and read other reviews on here before you fork over your cash, and/or jump into trading. Good luck! Update 11/15/10: In this book you are advised to not trade when momentum charting clearly indicates highly overbought/oversold trades. FWIW, I have found that selling/buying at precisely those times leads to consistent success. I have had very few losing trades following my own strategy. Of course, find what works for you.
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|Insightfully Educational,
Miner is one of the few trading authors that seem to have some practical, successful trading experience. His book offers a complete trading plan from identifying the high probability trade setups for any market and any time frame right through the exit strategy. High Probability Trading Strategies is not the typical compendium of the old tried and true indicators and Fib retracements but a logical and practical approach to high probability trades with small capital exposure.
His Multiple Time Frame Momentum strategy is brilliant in its simplicity and execution. The Beyond Fib Retracements chapter shows a couple of unique strategies that help you to identify in advance which retracement level should be support or resistance. He also explains in a logical and practical way how to use simple pattern and timing strategies to identify the targets for trend reversal. Miner focuses on exit strategies as much as entry setups for a complete trading plan from entry to exit, just as the title describes.
Especially valuable is the video CD that is included with the book. I’ve had several trading books that included a CD but most of the CD material did not complement the book, let alone appear to be professionally produced. The 2 hour video CD with High Probability Trading Strategies is a valuable complement to the book material as Miner goes through several trade examples bar-by-bar. I think any trader will be very pleased with what they learn from High Probability Trading Strategies.
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